Half of listed companies run enterprises contribute half of growth-cancam

The first half of the listed company accountant enterprises contribute half of growth recently a number of international investment banks have released a report that Chinese economic indicators improved across the board, the fund "off into the imaginary real situation of ease. However, whether the real estate is classified into the real economy or the virtual economy is still controversial. What will the economic indicators be after removing the real estate? If we reconsider the influence of the real estate on the economy, the conclusion may not be so optimistic. The national finance and development laboratory (NIFD) 25 released the "report of the first half of A shares of listed company earnings in 2016 on the morning" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), released a report, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Lv Jun said, because of the regional hot real estate market, the first half of the real estate listed companies as the non financial A shares directly with nearly 45% of the revenue growth, core net profit and nearly 40% of the net profit growth, growth of nearly 50%. "This good assignor is very upset." Li Yang, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and chairman of the NIFD, said at the press conference that the profits of listed companies improved significantly in the first half of the year, but more than half of them were due to real estate, which made people feel uneasy and uneasy. Lv Jun told the first Financial Daily reporters, in addition to real estate enterprises, non housing prices also appeared in the use of real estate assets revaluation trend. If taking into account the indirect contribution of the real estate market, the listed companies in the real estate industry contributed more than 50% of the income and profit growth to non-financial A shares. Excluding real estate listed companies, earnings in the first half of the year only slightly improved, while the main board of listed companies operating income and profits will continue to maintain negative growth. Housing prices thriving, the property market unpopular wave after wave. First in the second half of last year, Shenzhen, followed by the first half of this year’s Beijing Shanghai, then Zhengzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu…… property prices skyrocketing, real estate enterprises directly benefit. From the financial data of listed companies as of June 30, 2016, the growth rate of listed housing enterprises accounted for half of the first half earnings growth of Listed Companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities A shares. "First Financial Daily" reporter statistics, CSI two cities 2927 listed companies profitability found that the first half of the overall operating income of 14 trillion and 620 billion, an increase of 268 billion 400 million, an increase of 2%; in the first half net profit of 1 trillion and 490 billion, down 36 billion 100 million, a decrease of 2%. According to Shen mosan class classification, the two cities a total of 132 real estate companies, the first half of the real estate enterprises operating income of 567 billion 500 million, an increase of 133 billion 600 million, or 31%; net profit of 45 billion 600 million, an increase of 6 billion 100 million, or 15%. Compared to see, housing prices accounted for 4% of revenue, net profit accounted for 3%, but the direct contribution to the first half of income growth has reached 50%. After the elimination of financial enterprises, the Social Science Institute released 25 report can see more clear conclusion. According to Lv Jun, in order to ensure the representativeness of the sample, the study selected 2271 non-financial A shares listed companies before 2012. Sample Firms operating income increased by 304 billion 646 million yuan, first of all thanks to the real estate listed companies." Lu Jun analysis, the first half of the real estate industry revenue increased by 136 billion 2 million, an increase.

上市公司半年账 房企贡献一半增长近日多家国际投行先后发布报告,认为中国经济指标全线好转,资金“脱实入虚”情况缓解。但是,房地产到底是归入实体经济还是虚拟经济还存在争议,剔除房地产之后经济指标又会如何呢?如果重新考虑房地产对经济的影响,结论可能没有这么乐观。国家金融与发展实验室(NIFD)25日上午发布《2016年上半年A股上市公司盈利分析报告》(下称《报告》),报告发布人、社科院研究员吕峻称,由于区域性房地产市场的火爆,上半年房地产上市公司为整个非金融A股公司直接贡献了近45%的营业收入的增长,和近40%的净利润的增长、近50%的核心净利润的增长。“这个好转让人很不安。”中国社会科学院学部委员、NIFD理事长李扬在发布会上表示,上半年上市公司盈利明显好转,但是其中一半以上是因为房地产,这让人感到忐忑和不安。吕峻告诉《第一财经日报》记者,除了房地产企业,非房企也出现了利用房地产资产进行价值重估的苗头。如果考虑到房地产市场的间接贡献,房地产行业上市公司为非金融A股公司贡献了50%以上的收入和利润增长。如果剔除房地产上市公司,上半年盈利仅有微弱改善,而主板上市公司营业收入和利润仍会维持负增长。房企一枝独秀楼市火爆一波又一浪。先是去年下半年的深圳,紧接着今年上半年的京沪,然后是郑州、杭州、南京、成都…..楼市暴涨,房地产企业直接受益。从截止到2016年6月30日的上市公司财务数据来看,上市房企盈利增长占沪深两市A股上市公司上半年盈利增长的一半。《第一财经日报》记者统计沪深两市2927家上市公司盈利状况发现,上半年总体营业收入14.62万亿,同比增长2684亿,增幅2%;上半年净利润1.49万亿,同比减少361亿,降幅2%。根据申万三级分类,两市共有132家房地产企业,上半年房地产企业营业收入5675亿,同比增加1336亿,涨幅31%;净利润456亿,同比增长61亿,涨幅15%。对比可以看到,房企收入占比4%、净利润占比3%,但是对上半年收入增长的直接贡献却达到50%。剔除金融企业之后,社科院25日发布的《报告》中可以看到更加清晰的结论。据吕峻介绍,为了保证样本的代表性,此次研究选取了2012年以前上市的2271家非金融类A股上市公司。“样本公司营业收入同比增加3046.46亿元,首先要归功于房地产上市公司。”吕峻分析,上半年房地产行业营业收入增加1360.02亿,增幅达到44.6%,增加额和增幅高居各行业之首,增加额占上市公司总体增加额的44.6%。值得注意的是,如果剔除房地产行业,上半年营业收入增长仅为 1.6%。“如果考虑到房地产市场的间接贡献,房地产行业上市公司为非金融A股公司贡献了50%以上的收入和利润增长。”吕峻表示,如果剔除房地产上市公司,上半年盈利仅有微弱改善,而主板上市公司营业收入和利润仍会维持负增长,只是跌幅比上年同期收窄而已。对于上半年上市公司的表现,李扬表示担忧。“盈利好转一半以上归因于房地产市场,这非常令人不安。”他告诉记者,上半年经济好转相当程度上都是因为房地产市场的繁荣,这让他心里比较忐忑。因为从上世纪70年代以来,主要的危机都是从房地产市场开始的。来源:国家金融与发展实验室(NIFD)不缺钱不欠债 也不投资区域性房地产市场的火爆,直接贡献了近一半的业绩增长,除此之外,对盈利有正面影响的其他因素主要有两个方面。一是大宗商品低位徘徊,使得上市公司营业成本下降或增幅减小,提高了毛利率;二是消费升级、结构转型带来部分产业的业绩改善。“主板、中小板、创业板三个板块各有不同,主板盈利略微改善主要是由于区域性房地产市场火爆,如果剔除房地产公司业绩增长,主板公司总体盈利仍有所恶化,”吕峻分析,中小板因为没有采掘业等上市公司,可以最大的享受大宗商品价格低位徘徊的红利。而创业板盈利增长主要是因为新经济升级转型。不过,从上半年财务数据来看,企业的投资发展依然后劲不足。据《报告》统计,2000多家样本公司整体来看营收收现率平稳,维持在100%左右;经营现金流持续好转,同比增加15.5%;存货投资现金支出仅增长1.5%,其中主板公司的该项投资出现微幅下降;货币资金增长20%。“这说明上市公司不缺钱,”吕峻告诉记者,90年代初去产能的阶段,一个典型的特点是三角债十分严重。但是这一次经济下滑的情况下,因为货币环境比较宽松,我们没有出现三角债的问题。在李扬看来,这背后隐藏的一个问题令人担忧。他分析,上市公司货币资金增长20%,是一个比较大的数量。资金在上市公司手里,企业却不愿意去投资,这跟以往完全不同,在货币十分宽松的情况下出现通货紧缩。他告诉记者,“上一轮三角债的时候,一个好的方面是大家都想干事。但是这一轮虽然没有这种三角债,但是大家都不想干事,或者说,没事可干”。另外,从固定资产投资减少、对外投资维持较快增长来看,经济脱实向虚的态势依然十分明显。社科院研究员、NIFD资本市场与公司金融研究中心主任张跃文也表示,主板上市公司收益率才4%左右,相比于理财产品及其他金融投资,劣势非常明显,资金“脱实向虚”是有原因的。李扬告诉《第一财经日报》记者,预计利率还是得降低,当前货币政策已经非常宽松,不过主要是“量宽”,下一步要“价低”,让企业低成本拿钱,但目前这依然是个非常复杂的问题。上半年金融环境相对宽松,楼市持续火爆,但是下半年房地产热潮也存在回落的可能。吕峻在《报告》中分析,如果下半年房地产市场景气度下降,且没有其他行业发展替代房地产行业的角色,那么与去年同期相比盈利不会改善,甚至可 能出现下降。目前能够对房地产形成替代的只有基础设施投资。这是在房地产市场出现滑坡情境下,上市公司盈利能否继续得到改善的主要因素之一。不过,由于当前地方政府债务水平较高,资金来源依然是瓶颈,政府能否通过PPP等融资模式的推广,激发出民间资本热情,目前来看,还需要画一个问号。更多精彩内容欢迎搜索关注微信公众号:腾讯财经(financeapp)。相关的主题文章: